Ukraine risks leaving up to 35 million metric tons of agricultural products on the domestic market due to systematic attacks on Black Sea infrastructure and its neighbors’ refusal to expand transit routes.

According to Dengi.ua, citing the agricultural publication AgroReview.

Why European Neighbors Are Refusing to Expand Transit

In September, Ukraine exported only 2.4 million metric tons of agricultural products - about 46% of the minimum requirement. Approximately 2.9 million metric tons of grain accumulate domestically each month due to attacks on ships and Danube ports, which have continued for the third consecutive month.

According to the publication, land-based logistics have faced the following barriers:

  • a financial request: Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotskyi called on partners in Brussels to approve the transit of large volumes and provide €1.1 billion to subsidize farmers’ logistics costs;
  • Romania’s refusal: Romanian Minister of Agriculture Barna Tánczos emphasized that due to shallow waters on the Danube and port congestion, the country will not be able to double the number of trains or expand road corridors;
  • Poland’s position: the Polish Ministry of Infrastructure officially rejected plans to expand capacity, maintaining the import ban alongside Slovakia and Hungary;
  • alternative hubs: European Commissioner for Agriculture Christophe Hansen did not make any direct financial commitments, but Ukraine is already working out transport routes through ports in Germany and the Netherlands.

“This is very, very critical,” Taras Vysotsky emphasized regarding the logistics situation.

How the Export Crisis Will Affect Crop Planting

Due to a shortage of working capital and blocked grain elevators, agricultural producers are forced to reassess the acreage for next season’s harvest.

Key factors affecting the future harvest:

  • Ministry assessment: the Ministry of Agrarian Policy expects a moderate decrease in winter wheat acreage to 4.5 million hectares, down from 4.6 million hectares a year earlier (a 2% decline);
  • business forecast: Yevhen Osipov, CEO of Kernel agroholding, warned of the risk of a 20% reduction in planted acreage;
  • pessimistic scenario: in the event of a protracted crisis, the reduction in cropland could reach 35–40%;
  • distribution of shipments: in September, 54% of exported grain (1.3 million metric tons) passed through Danube terminals, while 41% (993,000 metric tons) was transported by rail.