Ukraine is in talks with the American company Raytheon to launch licensed production of missiles for the Patriot systems. According to preliminary estimates, the production lines could become operational in late 2027 or early 2028, and the first Ukrainian-made interceptors could be delivered to the Ukrainian Armed Forces no earlier than late 2028 or as late as 2029. This was reported by Defense Express, as cited by Dengi.ua.

Production Could Begin in 2027–2028

According to the publication, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans to establish production following a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in New York. He stated that it would take approximately 1–1.5 years to deploy production facilities after obtaining the necessary license.

Ukraine is currently in negotiations with the American company Raytheon, which manufactures the relevant missiles and is ready to cooperate. Kyiv has also asked Trump to help expedite the licensing process.

If the licensing procedures are completed in the near future, then, based on the stated timelines, Ukrainian production facilities could theoretically begin operations in late 2027 or early 2028.

However, the launch of the facility does not mean that the Ukrainian military will receive ready-to-use missiles at that very moment.

What Specific Missiles will Ukraine Produce?

We are talking about the PAC-2 GEM-T - one of the two main types of interceptors used by Patriot systems. This missile is manufactured by Raytheon.

The PAC-2 GEM-T is designed to engage:

  • aircraft;
  • cruise missiles;
  • tactical ballistic missiles.

The other main Patriot interceptor is the PAC-3 MSE, manufactured by Lockheed Martin.

These two missiles differ in their method of engaging targets. The PAC-3 MSE uses “hit-to-kill” technology, meaning it destroys the target with a direct hit. The PAC-2 GEM-T is equipped with a high-explosive fragmentation warhead that detonates near the target.

For Ukraine, the choice of the GEM-T is also linked to Raytheon’s existing manufacturing infrastructure. The company is already expanding production of these missiles in Europe.

Specifically, in Germany, COMLOG - a joint venture between Raytheon and MBDA - is ramping up GEM-T production. A new plant in Schrobenhausen is expected to play a key role in the future production of these interceptors.

When Will the Ukrainian Missiles Reach the Air Defense Forces?

There will be several stages between the start of production and the delivery of finished missiles to the Ukrainian army. Once production capacity is in place, a full production cycle will need to be established, tests will need to be conducted, and the finished products will need to be accepted.

Therefore, even if production begins in late 2027 or early 2028, the first Ukrainian-made missiles are likely to be available around late 2028 or in 2029.

However, this forecast remains preliminary. Specific timelines will depend on what portion of the work Ukraine can carry out independently, which components will be supplied from the U.S. and Europe, and whether a full production cycle will be established or if the process will primarily involve final assembly.

Germany’s Experience Provides a Realistic Timeline

Defense Express cites Germany as an example. Raytheon and MBDA have been collaborating on the Patriot program for many years, but the expansion of production capacity for the GEM-T there did not begin until late 2024.

Moreover, the first missiles produced at the new German facilities are not expected until 2026.

Thus, the publication writes, Ukrainian Patriot systems will continue to depend on shipments of ready-made interceptors from the U.S. and Europe in the coming years. Domestic production is intended to become a long-term source of missiles for Ukraine’s air defense, but it will not be able to quickly meet the current demand for such munitions.