The Cabinet of Ministers has developed two scenarios for the budget and economic forecast for 2027–2029, taking into account the possible end of the war or the continuation of hostilities. The document contains forecasts for the hryvnia exchange rate, the minimum wage, government spending, and economic trends. This was reported by MP Olga Vasilevska-Smaglyuk on Telegram following the presentation of the Budget Declaration for 2027–2029, as reported by Dengi.ua .
Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko presented the key parameters of the future budget policy to lawmakers. First Vice Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and government representatives also participated in the discussion.
According to the document, the authorities are considering a baseline scenario that assumes an end to the war, as well as an alternative scenario that takes into account the continuation of hostilities. The security situation will be the determining factor for economic indicators and the level of government spending.
The government expects a gradual depreciation of the national currency in the coming years. While the average annual exchange rate for the dollar is projected to be 44.4 UAH in 2026, it could rise to 50.7 UAH by 2029.According to estimates, the exchange rate at the end of 2029 could reach 51.5 UAH per dollar.
At the same time, the authorities are forecasting an increase in the minimum wage. In 2027, the increase could be 10.4%, in 2028 - 8.7%, and in 2029 - another 7.1%. As a result of these cumulative increases, the minimum wage could rise to approximately 11,155 UAH per month.
A gradual increase in the subsistence minimum is also planned. According to government estimates, it could rise by 10.9% in 2027, by 8.9% in 2028, and by 7.1% in 2029.
The Cabinet of Ministers is paying special attention to reforming the wage system. According to Yulia Svyrydenko, the full implementation of this reform will require about 320 billion UAH, though certain changes may be introduced earlier.
According to the budget declaration, government spending is expected to peak in 2027. After that, budget expenditures are expected to gradually decline.
The government forecasts expenditures of 4.77 trillion UAH in 2026, 5.05 trillion UAH in 2027, 4.87 trillion UAH in 2028, and 4.55 trillion UAH in 2029.
At the same time, the need for external financing in 2027 is estimated at more than 2.1 trillion UAH.This refers to support from international partners, including the European Union, the Group of Seven, the World Bank, the United Kingdom, and the International Monetary Fund.
If the active phase of the war comes to an end, the government expects economic growth to accelerate. According to the forecast, Ukraine’s real GDP could grow by 2.6% in 2026, 4.5% in 2027, 5.3% in 2028, and 6.7% in 2029.
The government emphasizes that the economy’s future trajectory will depend directly on the situation at the front, the extent of international support, and the pace of the country’s postwar recovery.