Due to a shortage of available refining capacity, Russia's export embargo, and approaching peak winter demand, diesel fuel will remain in short supply - with refining margins having already reached historic highs in Europe and the U.S.
This is reported by Dengi.ua with a reference to Reuters.
Why Is There a Global Shortage of Diesel Fuel?
Global diesel fuel supplies will continue to face significant pressure due to a shortage of spare refining capacity, Russia’s export ban, and seasonal increases in consumption ahead of winter. This was stated by energy sector top executives at the APPEC conference.
Military operations and geopolitical conflicts have disrupted refinery operations in Russia and the Middle East, pushing diesel refining margins to record highs in European countries and the U.S., while simultaneously reducing crude oil export flows to Asia.
According to Vitol CEO Russell Hardy, a significant shortage of refined petroleum products has emerged in the global market: the industry is falling short by about 2 million barrels per day from Russia and nearly the same volume from the Middle East.
How Depleted Are Global Fuel Reserves?
The crude oil market is currently more stable than the refined products segment. The Middle East supplies about 9 million barrels of crude oil per day to the international market, compared with only 1 million barrels of refined fuel.
Refineries are unable to ramp up the necessary capacity to halt the depletion of commercial stocks. According to market estimates, global fuel reserves have effectively fallen to critically low levels. Mark Senn, senior vice president of global trading at Phillips 66, emphasized that the vast majority of U.S. refineries are already operating at full capacity. With winter approaching, this sets the stage for a prolonged price rally in international markets.
How Diesel Prices Have Skyrocketed in the U.S.
The price of diesel fuel in the United States hit new all-time highs late last week. The crack spread (a key indicator of refining margins) reached a record intraday high of $108.02 per barrel.
How the Fuel Shortage Will Affect Global Demand
High prices and a physical shortage of refined products are inevitably causing demand destruction. According to Vitol’s CEO, the fuel shortage and rising prices will lead to a decline in global oil demand growth of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026 compared to 2025 levels.
China’s behavior remains a separate factor: the current shortfall in crude oil import volumes between 2025 and 2026 amounts to 5–6 million barrels per day. Analysts predict that by the end of the year, Beijing will be forced to sharply ramp up purchases to build up sufficient fuel reserves before winter.