The Russian invasion, severe labor shortages, and fractured logistics are no longer the only hurdles facing Ukrainian farmers. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and strikes against Iran have caused global fuel and fertilizer prices to surge. This development creates a significant new threat to the current sowing season and future grain exports. This was reported by Reuters , according to Dengi.ua .
Fuel Prices 2026: How UAH 92 Diesel Impact’s Ukraine’s Agrarian Sector
Agriculture remains Ukraine's primary source of foreign exchange earnings, bringing in over $22 billion last year. However, the energy crisis triggered by Middle Eastern instability is causing production costs to rise rapidly.
According to industry reports, diesel prices have nearly doubled since late February 2026, reaching UAH 92 per liter. Additionally, nitrogen fertilizers have become increasingly expensive due to natural gas shortages. Dmytro Skornyakov, CEO of HarvEast agroholding, warns that production costs will increase by at least 20–30% in the short term. To mitigate these costs, many farmers are already being forced to reduce their total acreage.
Logistics and Grain Exports: Why Russia is Gaining a Price Advantage
Ukraine's situation is further complicated by the inability of farmers to stockpile fuel. With domestic refineries destroyed, the country is entirely dependent on imports from the EU. Furthermore, storing large volumes of diesel at fuel depots remains high-risk due to persistent Russian shelling.
Consequently, Russia is gaining a significant economic advantage. Russian farmers have access to cheap domestic fuel and fertilizers, allowing them to aggressively displace Ukrainian grain in global markets. Experts warn that this disproportion could cause Ukraine's export potential to fall by 15-20% this year, and as much as 40% if the crisis is prolonged.
Ukraine's 2026 Crop Forecast: Can the Agribusiness Sector Endure?
While a recent two-week truce between the U.S. and Iran has slightly dampened global oil prices, analysts believe it will take months to restore stable supply chains.
Major agribusinesses are projecting a 5-10% drop in output this season. Sustained high fuel prices may also force farmers to abandon winter sowing in the fall. Despite these challenges, the government remains cautiously optimistic. Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskyi hopes that exceptionally favorable weather conditions in 2026 will offset the reduced use of fertilizers, allowing the total grain harvest to match last year’s level of 60 million tons.