Following the outbreak of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, grain shipments through Black Sea ports effectively ceased. The situation stabilized following the launch of the "grain initiative" in mid-summer 2022, which enabled the restoration of maritime export routes. Consequently, annual export volumes for certain crops returned to - and sometimes exceeded - pre-war benchmarks. This analysis is based on reporting by Dengi.ua, referencing an infographic by "Slovo i Dilo".
In 2022, corn exports reached 24.98 million tons, exceeding 2021 levels by 310,000 tons. Shipments of rapeseed and colza increased by 450,000 tons, while soybeans grew by 890,000 tons. Notably, sunflower seed exports hit a record 2.75 million tons, compared to just 80,000 tons the previous year. Conversely, other crops saw sharp declines: wheat fell by 44%, barley by 62%, oats by 65%, and rye by 62%.
Trends during this period were varied:
- Corn: Continued its upward trajectory, reaching 29.62 million tons by the end of 2024.
- Wheat: Recovered to pre-war levels, with over 16 million tons in 2023 and 20.66 million tons in 2024.
- Barley: Rose to 3.38 million tons, though it remained below the 2021 figure of 5.66 million tons.
- Soybeans: Increased significantly to 3.43 million tons - more than triple 2021 volumes.
- Rapeseed: Shipments also climbed, reaching 3.88 million tons.
While oats and rye showed modest gains (17,000 and 4,000 tons, respectively), sunflower seed exports fluctuated, briefly returning to 2021 levels (800,000 tons) before dropping to 210,000 tons in 2024.
The year 2025 was marked by a substantial decrease in export volumes. Corn shipments dropped by nearly 40% to 17.96 million tons, and wheat fell by 34% to 13.62 million tons. Other crops experienced even steeper declines: barley fell by almost 53%, sunflower seeds plummeted by over 70% (to 60,000 tons), and rapeseed volumes were halved to 1.68 million tons. Rye exports saw a near-total collapse, falling from 10,000 tons to a mere 100 tons.
The sole exceptions were soybeans, which maintained levels similar to the previous year, and oats, which more than doubled from 20,000 to 50,000 tons.
The 2025 decline was caused by a combination of renewed Russian strikes on port infrastructure, heightened global market competition, and a locust infestation.
While the State Customs Service of Ukraine has released data for the first quarter of 2026, these figures pertain to the 2025/2026 marketing season and reflect the ongoing negative trends. A definitive assessment of the current export season will only be possible closer to the summer months.