If Bill No. 15112 is enacted, global marketplaces like AliExpress and Temu may be forced to exit the Ukrainian market, warns economist and financial analyst Oleksiy Kushch in his latest blog post for Dengi.ua.
According to the expert, if the law is passed, VAT would be applied to all goods purchased on foreign marketplaces starting January 1, 2027, regardless of the parcel's value. This tax would be built into the final cost of goods, effectively increasing prices by 20% due to VAT alone - excluding any potential 10% customs duties. It remains unclear whether foreign digital trade platforms would be willing or able to register as tax residents in Ukraine to comply with these requirements.
Kushch notes that the Ukrainian e-commerce market is valued at approximately $5–6 billion annually. AliExpress and Temu currently account for about 20–25% of this market - roughly $1 - 1.5 billion per year. For these global companies, the Ukrainian market represents less than 1.5% of their total global turnover.
"The question now is: will AliExpress and Temu build a separate IT system to account for taxation in a market that represents only 1–2% of their turnover? Is it possible that these networks will choose to suspend delivery to Ukraine entirely?" writes Oleksiy Kushch.
Meanwhile, the author suggests that Ukrainian shopping centers may be the primary lobbyists for this parcel tax. High prices in brick-and-mortar retail have driven consumers toward electronic platforms, causing traditional malls to lose a significant share of their revenue.
"Therefore, this 'parcel strike' is an attempt to use the 'fiscal whip' to drive Ukrainians back into empty shopping centers," the analyst concludes.