These two primary beneficiaries of the current Ukrainian trade model maintain a foreign trade balance comparable to the total foreign loans provided to Ukraine. This is reported by Dengi.ua , citing a blog post by economist and financial analyst Oleksiy Kushch.
According to Kushch, China remains Ukraine's top trading partner. In 2025, total trade turnover between the two nations reached $21.04 billion. While imports from China to Ukraine rose to $19.2 billion, Ukrainian exports to China collapsed to just $1.82 billion. This resulted in a trade deficit of $17.41 billion for Ukraine. Given that Ukraine imported a total of $84 billion in goods in 2025 while exporting $40 billion, Beijing now accounts for more than 20% of all Ukrainian imports.
The expert notes that Poland is Ukraine's second-largest trading partner. Its trade turnover last year reached $20 billion. According to Eurostat, exports from Ukraine to Poland amounted to $5.1 billion, while imports from Poland reached $15.2 billion.
"Cumulatively, China and Poland account for almost 50% of imports to Ukraine, or $40 billion at the end of last year. The scale of Ukraine's external lending—excluding military packages—also averages $40 billion per year. It appears that China and Poland split the $40 billion in foreign loans Ukraine receives right down the middle. In essence, we supply raw materials to the EU and China, take out $40 billion in annual loans from the EU, and hand that money to Polish and Chinese companies. This stimulates their production while simultaneously increasing our national debt," emphasizes Oleksiy Kushch.