A study of the personal or familial readiness of citizens to join the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the event of a protracted war (3 to 10 years) shows that the core mobilization base remains relatively stable. However, there are simultaneously alarming signs of a potential depletion of human resources. This is reported by Dengi.ua with reference to data of poll initiated by "Slovo i Delo".
The share of respondents ready to join the military—either personally or through family members—remains virtually unchanged regardless of the war's predicted duration: 18% based on a three-year forecast and 16% for a ten-year horizon. This indicates a stable group of citizens whose decision to defend the country is unconditional.
Conversely, approximately 40–42% of respondents explicitly stated an unwillingness to serve. As the expected duration of the conflict increases, this figure grows slightly, suggesting an accumulation of fatigue and a decline in motivation under the conditions of a protracted war.
Particular attention should be paid to the decline in the share of those who are currently serving or have relatives in the military: this figure drops from 7% at a three-year horizon to 5% at the five and ten-year marks. This may reflect doubts regarding the feasibility of long-term service, expectations of demobilization, or the cumulative risks of physical exhaustion and injury.
A significant portion of the sample—35–37%—consists of respondents who find it difficult to provide a definitive answer. This group constitutes a "gray zone" whose eventual decisions will depend on front-line developments, battlefield successes, and changes in mobilization policy.
Socio-demographic analysis reveals significant disparities. Men are more likely to declare a readiness to serve (21%) than women (15%), though women show a higher proportion of indecision (38% vs. 32%).
The 45–54 age group appears the most stable in terms of mobilization potential, recording the highest level of readiness (23%) and the lowest refusal rate (35%). In contrast, young people aged 18–29 demonstrate the most categorical stance: 49% are not ready to serve, compared to a readiness level of approximately 18%.
Regional differences are also stark. The North shows the highest readiness (26%) and the lowest refusal rate (28%), likely due to the experience of de-occupation and proximity to immediate threats. Kyiv, conversely, shows the lowest readiness (10%) and the highest unwillingness to serve (49%). The East is characterized by the most polarized positions: it has the fewest undecided respondents (19%), combined with both high readiness (24%) and a high refusal rate (48%).
Indicators for longer periods (5 and 10 years) generally mirror the patterns of the three-year forecast. This confirms that the time factor does not significantly alter basic attitudes; the 16–18% of citizens ready to defend the country maintain their stance regardless of the war's duration.
However, the primary shift remains the shrinking of the "currently serving" group. For example, among respondents aged 45–54, this share drops from 11% in a three-year forecast to 5% in a ten-year assessment, further highlighting the limited resources for long-term participation in hostilities.