The summer of 2026 may prove to be a serious challenge for Ukrainian farmers. Higher production costs and the risk of a repeat of the drought scenario of 2024 jeopardize the return on investment in the new season. Additional pressure on the industry comes from rising fuel and fertilizer prices amid the military conflict in Iran. This is reported by Dengi.ua with reference to publication "Economic Pravda".
It is noted that, according to Ukrhydrometcenter, the average air temperature in June is expected to be 19-23 degrees Celsius, which is about 1.5 degrees above the climatic norm. At the same time, the amount of precipitation is predicted to be within average values. There were similar expectations at the beginning of summer 2024, but by the end of June the situation had changed dramatically: before the beginning of September, about two-thirds of the country's territory faced soil drying up.
Denys Marchuk, deputy chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, told the publication that the costs of spring field work this year have increased by 20-25%. The main reasons were a significant increase in the price of diesel fuel, which rose by 67%, as well as mineral fertilizers, the cost of which rose by 35%.
At the same time, the head of the analytical center of the Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business Svitlana Lytvyn noted that the spring sowing campaign did not fully feel the consequences of the price hike. Many farms have purchased some of the necessary resources in advance before they became more expensive. However, these stocks are insufficient for the entire production cycle, so further work on feeding and crop care will be carried out taking into account the new prices.
According to experts, if we consider the full cycle of growing grain crops, including corn, the cost of production will increase by about 13%. Already now some agricultural enterprises are forced to reduce the volume of fertilizer application.
Large and medium-sized farms are in a more favorable position due to access to credit resources and the ability to purchase materials in advance. Small farms do not have this flexibility and often purchase fertilizers after prices have risen.
"Small farmers don't have money. They apply 20-30% of the required amount," Marchuk said.
The biggest threat to the future harvest is the possible summer heat, especially in July, when most crops are at important stages of maturation. According to Marchuk, sunflower is considered relatively resistant to high temperatures, but prolonged drought without precipitation negatively affects this crop. Under such conditions, the oil content of seeds decreases, plants dry out, and farmers lose part of their harvest.
Svitlana Lytvyn emphasizes that the effects of heat depend on the stage of plant development. Lack of moisture and high temperatures harm all crops, but the most sensitive to such conditions are corn, soybeans and sugar beets.
"Insufficient rates of fertilizer application to maintain plant resistance to high temperatures and lack of moisture will definitely reduce yields," Litvin said.
As the publication writes, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy, a significant reduction in total yields compared to 2025 is not expected yet. At the same time, wheat production may decrease by 4%, and barley - by 10%. As for corn, the harvest of which especially depends on weather conditions in summer, the Ministry expects to maintain the current figures.
Experts note that if the weather is favorable, the average yield may remain at an acceptable level even despite the reduction in fertilizer application. However, much will depend on the amount of precipitation and temperature regime.
"What to do? We have to rely on ourselves and on the fact that there will be enough sunshine and precipitation. Drought will lead to material losses and reduction of farms", - emphasized Marchuk.