The National Bank of Ukraine has revised its macroeconomic forecast for 2026 downward. The regulator expects inflation to reach 10%, real GDP growth of just 1.8%, and a state budget deficit - excluding grants - of about 35% of GDP. This was reported by Dengi.ua, citing the NBU’s July Inflation Report.

Inflation Will Remain High

According to the National Bank’s estimates, consumer inflation will accelerate to 10% in 2026. Going forward, the regulator expects a gradual slowdown in price growth: to 6.9% in 2027 and a return to the 5% target level in 2028.

The NBU attributes the acceleration in inflation to increased government spending, rising labor costs for businesses, higher fuel prices, and the effects of the previous depreciation of the hryvnia.

In July, the discount rate was raised from 15% to 15.5%. The baseline scenario calls for a further increase to 16% in 2026. The regulator expects to resume a cycle of rate cuts in the second quarter of 2027.

Economic Growth Will Slow

According to the NBU’s forecast, Ukraine’s real GDP will grow by only 1.8% in 2026.

The main factors holding back economic growth will remain Russian attacks on enterprises and logistics infrastructure, which will limit production and investment activity.

At the same time, the economy will be supported by significant government spending, the allocation of a portion of international aid toward localizing arms production in Ukraine, and an expected increase in crop yields.

In 2027–2028, the National Bank forecasts that economic growth will accelerate to 2.8–3% annually.

Wages Will Rise, and Unemployment Will Fall

According to the regulator’s forecast, the unemployment rate will fall to 10% in 2026 and to approximately 9% in the following two years.

Real wages are expected to rise by more than 12% as early as this year, after which the growth rate will slow to 4–6% annually.

The NBU also forecasts a net outflow of approximately 200,000 people from Ukraine in 2026. In 2027, about 100,000 Ukrainians are expected to return, and in 2028, another 500,000 or so, provided the security situation improves.

International Aid Will Remain a Key Source of Financing

According to NBU estimates, the state budget deficit, excluding grants, will amount to about 35% of GDP in 2026. In 2027, it is expected to narrow to 26%, and in 2028, to 15% of GDP.

Budget needs are planned to be covered primarily through international financial assistance. The regulator expects to receive the following amounts:

  • $87 billion in 2026;
  • $59 billion in 2027;
  • $33 billion in 2028.

The NBU believes that these funding levels will allow Ukraine to cover the budget deficit without monetary emission and to increase its international reserves to $70–74 billion during 2026–2028.

The regulator based its updated forecast on the continued intensification of Russian attacks, the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, the development of localized defense production, and a gradual improvement in conditions for the Ukrainian economy in the coming years.