The fighting between Ukraine and Russia is gradually transitioning into a protracted war of attrition, while the prospects for a swift peaceful settlement remain extremely vague. This was reported by The Economist, via Dengi.ua .
According to the publication, in early 2026, U.S.-mediated talks were still viewed as a potential baseline for a difficult compromise. Specifically, an option was discussed under which Ukraine might cede parts of the Donbas in exchange for robust international security guarantees. However, this scenario failed to gain momentum.
The Russian side refused to back any concrete proposals, and the very concept of a compromise agreement gradually lost its political traction. On May 22, the United States officially announced its withdrawal from the negotiation process. Nevertheless, some analysts suggest that diplomatic contacts could partially resume as early as this summer.
"Most likely, hostilities will continue until Ukraine or Russia breaks down," the publication notes at the same time.
Experts acknowledge that identifying a potential "breaking point" for Russia remains difficult. Identified risk factors include economic vulnerabilities under mounting sanctions pressure, internal contradictions, and severe wartime casualties. Concurrently, high revenues from oil exports have so far managed to sustain the Russian budget.
According to Ukrainian military sources cited by the publication, defense efficiency is steadily increasing due to the aggressive deployment of unmanned systems. Kyiv believes that the Russian army continues to suffer heavy losses, and its personnel replenishment rate fails to fully compensate for these casualties.
Despite relentless pressure along the frontline, Russia has yet to achieve its strategic goals in the Donbas within its projected timeframes. The Ukrainian command emphasizes that its advantage lies not only in technology but also in the rapid adaptability of its units.
The article places special emphasis on strikes targeting Russian infrastructure and military installations deep within the rear of the Russian Federation. Ukraine already manufactures a significant portion of these long-range systems domestically, though intelligence support from its allies remains critical.
The Economist stresses that despite Russia's substantial superiority in population, territorial size, and economic scale, Ukraine continues to effectively hold back the offensive.
At the same time, the domestic impacts of the war are becoming increasingly severe. Relentless strikes on energy infrastructure and major urban centers, including Kyiv, continue to strain both the economy and civil society. While Ukraine's economic stability is largely underpinned by international aid and a burgeoning domestic defense industry, the country faces critical labor shortages and profound demographic losses.
The publication also points to rising internal tensions within Ukrainian society, noting that mobilization remains one of the most sensitive issues. Furthermore, corruption scandals and a decline in public trust toward state institutions are compounding domestic discontent.
The report highlights that political centralization within Ukraine is intensifying against the backdrop of the war. According to sources close to the political establishment, the decision-making process is increasingly concentrated around a narrow circle of individuals.
The Economist concludes by noting that the notion of a compromise peace involving territorial concessions has effectively lost public and political backing, meaning the war will continue to unfold as a long-term war of attrition.
According to government sources, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ordered preparations for another two to three years of war. The publication suggests that Ukraine remains capable of sustaining its resistance throughout this period, though the ultimate cost of such a confrontation for both the state and society will be extraordinarily high.