Russia is preparing a series of large-scale provocations and acts of sabotage on the territory of European Union member states with the aim of destabilizing the situation in the region and discrediting the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
This was reported by the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, as cited by Dengi.ua.
Objectives and Likely Scenarios of Russian Provocations
According to military intelligence, Moscow is launching a large-scale hybrid campaign, the key objective of which is to achieve a sharp reduction or complete cessation of Western military and financial aid to Ukraine. The Kremlin intends to sow panic among European societies and governments by organizing sabotage operations in Central and Eastern European countries, with a particular focus on the Baltic states.
"False-flag operations" have been chosen as the primary tool of pressure: Russian intelligence agencies are planning a series of staged incidents for which they intend to falsely blame the Ukrainian side through controlled propaganda channels and diplomatic platforms.
Where Moscow Is Preparing Sabotage Operations
Analysts at the Main Directorate of Intelligence have compiled a list of potential targets and locations in Europe that are at risk of enemy attacks:
- Critical infrastructure—key life-support systems and logistics hubs in EU countries;
- Border regions—areas of European countries directly bordering the Russian Federation, as well as the perimeter of the Kaliningrad enclave;
- Enclaves with Russian-speaking populations—European cities with a high concentration of people of Russian origin, to stir up internal tensions;
- Locations under Kremlin control—historical sites associated with Russia, as well as facilities and churches of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC).
Military intelligence emphasized that as early as the beginning of October 2026, a direct order from the Russian Federation’s top leadership to the special services had been intercepted, instructing them to intensify subversive activities in the EU and NATO areas of responsibility, a fact that the Ukrainian government had communicated to its Western partners in advance.
