Russian forces are deliberately escalating the intensity and brutality of their daytime strikes on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, seeking to make everyday life unbearable for Ukrainians as winter 2026–2027 approaches. At the same time, Russia’s military and political leadership is attempting to drive a wedge between European nations in order to completely exclude them from future peace negotiations.
This is stated in a detailed report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as reported by Dengi.ua.
A New Tactic of Aerial Terror: The Consequences of the October 29 Strikes
ISW analysts emphasize that a coordinated series of daytime strikes using drones and loitering munitions on October 29 claimed the lives of at least 19 people, while another 82 civilians were injured. Moscow continues to modernize its arsenal, actively deploying “Banderole” quasi-cruise missiles and jet-powered strike drones.
Key strikes and destruction in the regions:
- Dnipro: A high-speed jet-powered drone attacked a commuter passenger train right at the train station; at least 14 people were killed, and another 14 were wounded. In total, the Ukrainian Air Force recorded the launch of four jet-powered UAVs toward the city, three of which were intercepted;
- Chernihiv: A Russian “Banderole” loitering munition struck a residential neighborhood; two children were killed, and 31 people were injured;
- Kremenchuk: A drone struck an apartment building directly, killing three people and injuring 32 residents (including six children).
In total, on the night of October 29 and during the day, the enemy launched 112 Shahed-type attack UAVs (including 40 rocket-powered variants) at Ukraine, as well as “Gerbera” drones and “Parody” decoys. The ISW notes that the Kremlin is banking on the fact that even a small percentage of drones that break through air defenses will cause critical damage. Moscow’s goal is to break resistance through a large-scale humanitarian catastrophe and to counteract the media impact of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ tactical successes on the front lines.
Diplomatic Blackmail: Isolating Europe and the Abu Dhabi Format
Moscow has launched an aggressive campaign to push European countries out of the negotiation process. Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov and Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov cited “inconsistencies” in the positions of European leaders following Putin’s talks with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gar Støre.
Ushakov made it clear that the Kremlin views the consultations scheduled for after November 4 in Abu Dhabi exclusively as a trilateral format (the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia)—without the participation of EU institutions. Moscow refuses to recognize Europe’s autonomy until Western leaders capitulate to the demands of the 2021 ultimatum calling for the rollback of NATO infrastructure to the 1997 borders. In addition, Russia demands that Kyiv unilaterally renounce long-range strikes deep into Russian territory, even though it had previously rejected a reciprocal moratorium itself.
Situation on the Front: Ukrainian Armed Forces Maneuvers, Fighting Near Dobropillya, and Attacks in the Black Sea
Significant changes have been recorded along the line of contact:
- Dobropillya sector: Enemy forces have advanced south and southeast of Dobropillya, reaching the southern outskirts of the city (Svitlove and Vodyanske are occupied);
- Ukrainian Armed Forces counterattacks: Ukrainian units have advanced south of Novopavlovka and are firmly holding positions in the eastern part of Kozacha Lopan in the Kharkiv region and on the northern outskirts of Kostiantynivka, completely refuting the Russian Ministry of Defense’s claims that these areas have been occupied;
- Strikes deep behind Russian lines: Yandex Corporation (a Russian IT giant) has officially refused to publish financial revenue forecasts for 2026 due to the extensive destruction of its core data centers by Ukrainian long-range drones;
- Provocations in the Black Sea: Russian pro-military bloggers openly admitted that Russian surface drones struck the civilian bulk carrier Contship Jet (flying the Liberian flag) off the coast of Bulgaria on October 28.
