Updated forecast by analysts of APK-Inform indicates that the volume of sunflower production in Ukraine in 2025 is likely to be about 13.6-13.7 million tons. This is only 7% more than in 2024. The reason is the continuing decline in yield potential due to unfavorable weather conditions, especially in the southern and eastern regions of the country, where up to half of all sown areas under this crop are concentrated. About this reported [[link_local link_article_id="1823542 "]] Dengi.ua [[/link_local]].
It is noted that the spring was cool, and the lack of moisture in the soil and lack of precipitation in these regions negatively affected the development of sunflowers. Many farmers are reporting poor crop health, with problems with sprout uniformity, lagging growth and inflorescence formation. In some cases, a decision is made to diskeys such areas and move on to preparing fields for winter crops. Additional stress for plants in July was caused by heat and hail in some places.
It is reported that a certain support to the overall harvest can be provided by the central, western and northern regions of Ukraine, where climatic conditions of the current season were more favorable, which, according to preliminary estimates, will allow to get better yields.
According to analysts, despite the possible partial compensation of losses, a significant increase in sunflower prices in the new season is not expected for a number of reasons, namely:
- Processors are reviewing their approaches to operations in an effort to avoid losses similar to those seen in the 2024/25 season.
- Weak demand for sunflower oil and lower sunflower oil prices are putting pressure on the market. As practice has shown, when prices rise, buyers easily switch to other types of vegetable oils.
- The introduced export duty on soybean and rapeseed may change the situation on the domestic market: processing companies will get an advantage in the form of increased supply of oilseed raw materials.
