The Ukrainian steel industry is facing a new challenge: the European Union has significantly reduced quotas for duty-free steel imports, which could lead to a noticeable decline in Ukrainian steel exports to the European market.This is reported by Dengi.ua, citing a report by Reuters.
The industry is simultaneously affected by Russian attacks, problems with Black Sea logistics, rising transportation costs, and a 30% increase in Ukrzaliznytsia’s tariffs.
EU Cuts Quotas by Nearly Half
Effective July 1, the European Union has nearly halved its annual quotas for duty-free steel imports. Volumes exceeding the established limit are subject to a 50% import duty.
According to GMK Center estimates, the new quota for Ukraine is approximately 1 million metric tons. This could potentially lead to a reduction in Ukrainian steel exports to the EU by about 60% compared to 2025.
“Instead of support from the European Union, we are facing restrictions,” Metinvest Group Chief Operating Officer Alexander Mironenko told Reuters.
Europe Imports the Majority of Ukrainian Steel
The European market is critical for Ukraine’s steel industry. EU countries account for about 80% of Ukraine’s steel exports, and steel products as a whole make up approximately 15% of Ukraine’s total exports.
New trade restrictions could directly affect companies’ production plans. According to Mironenko, Zaporizhstal may scale back operations on certain production lines and increase output of pig iron, which is not subject to the established quotas.
As a result, the company risks utilizing only about half of its production capacity.
Maritime Logistics Drive Up Costs
The situation is further complicated by disruptions to the usual export and import routes through the Black Sea.
Due to problems with maritime logistics, Zaporizhstal is forced to ship coking coal through European ports. This increases the company’s costs by approximately $30-40 per metric ton.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates Ukraine’s loss of foreign exchange revenue in the second half of 2026—due solely to Russia’s blockade of ports - at approximately $2.5 billion.
At the same time, experts believe that the combined impact of trade restrictions, logistics problems, and other factors could amount to 10–12 percentage points of GDP in 2026–2027.
Ukraine Risks Losing Ground to Competitors
The industry association “Ukrmetallurgprom” is calling on Ukrainian authorities to seek a separate approach from the EU toward the domestic metallurgical industry.
Amid the new restrictions, Ukrainian manufacturers are gradually losing their competitive edge in the European market. Industry participants warn that companies from Turkey, China, and EU countries could fill the resulting gaps.
