If Ukraine joins the European Union, its gross domestic product (GDP) may increase by 26%, calculated Polish Institute of Economics, according to Dengi.ua . At the same time, the positive impact will be felt by other states in the region, although to a lesser extent: the GDP of Poland will increase by 0.17%, Hungary - by 0.15%, and Lithuania - by 0.13%.
It is noted that from 2021 to 2024 exports from Central European countries, closely linked to the Ukrainian market, increased by 75% - from 13.7 billion to a record 24 billion euros. The most active in trade with Ukraine were Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania, Romania and Bulgaria - they accounted for half of all imports to Ukraine over the period. Poland stands out in particular, whose companies are increasingly seeking not only to serve the Ukrainian market, but also to become full-fledged participants in logistics and production chains.
It is reported that the countries of the region also play a significant role in the structure of Ukrainian exports. These countries account for a quarter of all supplies from Ukraine, with Poland alone purchasing 10% of Ukrainian exports. Warsaw ranks first among importers of Ukrainian goods and is in second place among exporters to Ukraine, second only to China.
Analysts emphasize that the experience of previous EU enlargements, including Poland's accession, demonstrates: the economic benefits are primarily related to increased trade, lower transaction costs and closer integration into international production chains.
"Since the 2004 enlargement, there has been a marked reduction in trade barriers and increased market integration, which has generally contributed to economic growth for both new EU members and old ones," the study says, citing data from the European Commission.
At the same time, the financial consequences of Ukraine's possible membership in the EU are assessed differently. According to the calculations of the Bruegel Institute, the cost of such an expansion for the current members of the Union will amount to about 136 billion euros for the period 2021-2027, which is equivalent to 0.13% of the total GDP of the EU. The Jacques Delors Center, meanwhile , cites a much lower amount - €13.2 billion.
"Both studies agree that the potential spending would not lead to significant changes in the status of donor and recipient countries within the EU budget," the report's authors note.
