The Kremlin is currently evaluating several strategic options for the future of its war against Ukraine. While at least three distinct scenarios are under consideration, others may also be in development. This was reported by Dengi.ua , citing an interview given to 24 Channel by Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council .
Scenario 1: A Protracted War of Attrition (Until 2028)
According to Kovalenko, one of the baseline options involves extending the war until at least 2028. In this model, Russia is banking on its current spring-summer offensive and is prepared to enact partial mobilization to maintain the intensity of hostilities for several more years.
Scenario 2: Freezing the Conflict
The second scenario involves a gradual transition toward a ceasefire and a freezing of the front lines. To support this, the Russian Federation is already laying the informational groundwork.
"Sergii Kiriyenko, a representative of the presidential administration, is in charge of this entire 'infrastructure'. The development of various narratives is managed by Kiriyenko and his subordinates. In this case, they are crafting a narrative where the military leadership, rather than Putin, is blamed for the freezing of the war," Kovalenko explained.
Scenario 3: Hybrid Escalation with NATO
The third option envisions continuing the war in Ukraine while simultaneously shifting toward a hybrid confrontation with NATO by 2028. This could involve direct provocations against the Baltic states, utilizing sabotage groups and drone incursions.
In tandem with these plans, Russia is preparing legislative amendments that would authorize overseas military deployments under the pretext of "protecting Russian citizens." Kovalenko noted that the Kremlin is already molding public opinion and establishing the necessary political platforms for each of these paths.
"These are the three scenarios currently on the table. Different groups are formulating public opinion to support them. However, there is internal friction; some in Russia who oppose Kiriyenko are highlighting his failures, pointing to Viktor Orbán's political setbacks in Hungary and the unfavorable election outcomes in Moldova and Romania. Nevertheless, they are preparing a platform for whichever scenario Putin ultimately chooses," he stated.
Ultimately, the Kremlin has yet to commit to a final strategy. Instead, it is keeping all options open—from a protracted war of attrition to a partial freeze or a broader expansion of the conflict.
