Forecasts of grain harvest in Ukraine this year vary in the traditional range - from the most cautious to the most encouraging - and fluctuate between 55 and 65 million tons. For comparison: in 2024 the volume of grain harvest was 56.2 million tons. At the same time, earnings from the export of agricultural products may exceed 20 billion dollars.
About it writes "Zerkalo Nedeli", reports Dengi.ua .
The publication gives forecasts for the grain harvest and analyzes the markets for Ukrainian agricultural products in 2025. So among the main export positions, the picture is distributed as follows:
- Wheat. The area under crops continues to decline, and the expected yield ranges from 18.9 to 23.4 million tons (according to the USDA).
- Barley. Potential production ranges from 4.6 to 5.7 million tons.
- Corn. In 2025, agrarians are once again betting on this crop due to rising world prices and increased demand. The projected yield is 30.5 to 35 million tons.
- Soybeans. After a record harvest of 6.6 million tons last season and a sharp drop in prices, interest in this crop has declined. In 2025, volumes are expected to reach 5.8 to 7 million tons.
- Sunflower. According to pessimistic estimates, the harvest will be 10 million tons, while USDA assumes a higher figure of 14.4 million tons.
- Rapeseed. According to the consolidated opinion of market participants, the production of this crop will decrease by almost 13% compared to last year (to 86.9%).
It is noted that only 20% of cultivated land is enough for domestic consumption, which means that the remaining production can be exported, bringing foreign currency earnings to the country.
It is reported that Ukraine annually supplies abroad about 15-20 million tons of wheat and 25-28 million tons of corn. In the sunflower oil segment, the country is among the world leaders. Demand for rapeseed and soybeans also persists, despite the relatively small volumes in the global context.
At the same time, according to the publication, in 2025 there may be changes both in the directions of exports and in the list of exported products. The situation is influenced by several key factors:
- China's position. Possible aggravation of trade relations between the U.S. and China caused by "tariff balls" may affect two important crops for Ukraine - corn and soybeans. While earlier China actively purchased Ukrainian and American corn, now Brazil has become its main supplier.
- US policy. Former U.S. President Donald Trump's volatile stance on tariffs creates uncertainty, preventing stable trade agreements between Ukraine and neighboring countries, including in the framework of cooperation with the EU.
- European Commission decisions. As of June 6, the terms of trade between Ukraine and the EU are changing. The EU did not extend the ATM regime, which allowed duty-free and quota-free imports. This raises concerns among new market participants, who in 2022 were given the opportunity to enter European markets without restrictions.
Nevertheless, most analysts believe that there are no prerequisites for a significant reorientation of export geography in 2025 and the situation with the realization of agro-products may be as follows:
- EU market
The EU is still the main market for Ukrainian agricultural products: more than 52% of the export value in 2024 fell on this region. This trend is expected to continue.
- Asian market
Asia, which ranked first in terms of purchases before the full-scale war, accounted for only just over 30% of export revenue (about $7.5 billion) in 2024. The region's potential remains, but its realization involves a number of difficulties: it is profitable to ship products only in large batches (from 50,000 tons), as well as to take into account the peculiarities of logistics, consumption culture and financial settlements.
For example, deliveries to China may cause delays in payment: despite the terms specified in the contract, the actual payment is often made after the cargo is delivered to the processing point, which can take up to two weeks.
There is a lot of interest in the Asia region in terms of potential growth, but it requires deeper involvement and expertise than the EU market, which, although saturated, is considered financially stable and safe.
- Africa market
The African continent is still seen as a promising market despite its volatility. In 2024, exports to Africa brought Ukraine $2.6 billion, accounting for 10.5% of total revenue. The region is characterized by a high rate of population growth, which means a growing demand for food.
However, supplies to Africa are associated with traditional risks: lack of financial resources, infrastructural backwardness, unstable political situation and the presence of military conflicts. This is why most shipments are concentrated in countries with established trade channels, such as Egypt and Morocco.
While North African states are most often solvent, countries in the south and center of the continent are often unable to pay for supplies on time, even when demand is high.
"No one is taking the trouble to predict the next records. Exports in 2025 will finally depend on the stable operation of the sea corridor controlled by Ukraine. Experts are cautiously optimistic that exports of agro-industrial products (group 1-24) will exceed 20 billion dollars by the end of 2025", - summarizes the edition.
