According to UN forecasts, by 2050 the population of Ukraine may reach a critically low level, falling to 32 million people. This is stated in a study by the Kyiv School of Economics ( KSE ).
Analysts note that such a scenario is possible if effective political measures are not taken. They also warn that along with the population decrease, its age structure will change.
Already from 2070, the number of people aged 60 and older will exceed the working-age population (18-59 years old) - 11.1 million against 10.9 million, respectively.
"This means a critical level of aging of the nation, significant pressure on health care systems, social support and pensions. To maintain living standards, strengthening inclusion and attracting vulnerable groups and pensioners to the labor market will be crucial," the paper said.
It is expected that before the end of hostilities, probably at the end of 2025, the share of veterans and their families will grow to 15% of the total population of the country. This will amount to about 4-5 million people who need increased attention in matters of medical care and social adaptation.
In 2024, Ukraine already has about 1.35 million veterans, with more than 60% of them being under the age of 40.
The war has also led to an increase in the number of people with disabilities. About 40% of them have a third disability group, which does not require significant changes in working conditions. However, only 16% of people with disabilities of working age are involved in the labor market. At the same time, only 16% of vacancies are adapted for this category of population.
Another numerical category remains internally displaced persons (IDPs), who officially make up about 12% of the population of Ukraine - more than 4.6 million. However, the real number of such persons is about 950 thousand less, because some IDPs do not deregister when they return home or go abroad.
