As of July 1, the European Union has significantly reduced duty-free quotas on steel imports, a move that has hit Ukrainian producers the hardest. According to industry estimates, exports of steel products to the EU could drop by 50–60%, and annual losses in foreign exchange earnings could reach up to $1 billion. This is reported in an article by Ekonomichna Pravda (available here), as cited by Dengi.ua.
What the European Union Has Changed
The EU has revised its mechanism for protecting its domestic steel market, reducing the total volume of duty-free imports from 39 million to 18.3 million metric tons per year. Half of this quota is allocated among countries that have free trade agreements with the European Union, including Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Turkey, and South Korea.
For Ukraine, the individual quota for nine categories of steel products amounted to 1.05 million metric tons. This is significantly less than last year’s shipment volumes: in 2025, Ukrainian steelmakers exported 2.65 million metric tons of steel to the EU.
Exports exceeding the established quota are now subject to a 50% tariff, up from the previous rate of 25%.
What Losses are Projected?
According to Stanislav Zinchenko, director of the GMK Center analytical center, the new restrictions effectively mean a reduction in Ukrainian steel exports of 1.3–1.5 million metric tons annually.
“For Ukraine, this represents a 50–60% reduction in steel exports, or a decrease of 1.3–1.5 million metric tons. The state’s loss of foreign exchange revenue will range from $850 million to $1 billion per year,” the expert predicts.
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting estimates the potential losses for the steel industry to be even higher—about $1.2 billion annually.
What This Means for the Economy
Experts warn that the decline in exports will affect not only steel companies but also related industries.
A decline in the production of sheet and structural steel is expected, along with a drop in revenue for Ukrzaliznytsia, fewer orders for machinery-manufacturing companies, and a reduction in the country’s foreign exchange earnings.
An additional source of pressure will be the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), as well as new requirements for verifying the origin of steel, which will take effect in October.
What Ukrainian Companies Are Saying
Ukrainian producers consider the European Commission’s decision unfair, since the quotas were calculated using data from 2022–2024 - a period when the industry operated under the conditions of full-scale war, asset losses, and blocked seaports.
Metinvest, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, and Interpipe state that the restrictions do not account for the recovery of production and exports in 2025 and place Ukrainian producers at a distinct disadvantage compared to their competitors.
Business representatives are urging Ukrainian authorities to seek a revision of the quotas during negotiations with the European Union, as the current restrictions could lead to the loss of contracts, a decline in investment, and a further weakening of one of the country’s key export sectors.
