In the first quarter of 2025 in Ukraine due to high demand for labor force the share of unemployed decreased and the share of employed increased, reaching the highest level during the full-scale invasion. About it says in the Inflation Report of the National Bank (April 2025).
According to the NBU, both the demand and supply of labor in the labor market grew in the first quarter of 2025: both the number of vacancies and resumes increased compared to the first quarter of 2024.
Enterprises also intensified their efforts to attract to the labor market those individuals who were previously less represented on it: students, pensioners, persons with disabilities, and veterans.
As a result, the problem of shortage of workers, primarily related to the consequences of the war (migration, mobilization, increased imbalances in the labor market), was alleviated.
"However, it remained significant, including against the background of further migration outflow, and constrained the activities of enterprises and output growth. The persistence of a significant labor shortage fueled wage growth, household income and aggregate demand," the report said.
According to the NBU, the growth in demand for workers against the backdrop of limited supply will further reduce the unemployment rate below 10% by the end of the forecast period.
It is noted that mismatches between the demand and supply of skilled labor in the context of reviving economic activity will cause a further increase in wages in the private sector.
"This will have the largest pro-inflationary effect this year. However, it will gradually subside along with a slowdown in wage growth over the forecast horizon due to a gradual leveling off of imbalances in the labor market," the regulator added.
