According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) latest economic survey Ukraine is expected to grow at 2.5% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Economic prospects may improve if the security situation allows, which would create conditions for the recovery of investment and the return of Ukrainians who left the country. About this reported [[link_local link_article_id="1691282 "]] Dengi.ua [[/link_local]].
At the same time, inflation is expected to remain at a high level - about 13.2% this year, with a subsequent decline to 7.1% by 2026. Monetary policy should remain balanced and flexible to ensure a gradual return of inflation to the target level of the National Bank of Ukraine at 5% and maintenance of stable inflation expectations.
At the same time, the state budget deficit is projected at around 20% of GDP to cover defense spending, which is approximately 25% of GDP. This will lead to an increase in public debt to 116% of GDP in 2026, up from 49% in 2021. Improving the efficiency of budget expenditures will be an important factor in securing the resources needed to rebuild the country. In addition, Ukraine can strengthen tax revenues by reducing the use of the simplified tax system and improving tax administration through the introduction of digital technologies.
It is also noted that mobilization and mass displacement have caused significant labor shortages, exacerbating existing demographic challenges, including population aging and emigration. The reintegration of demobilized military personnel and migrants into the economy, as well as the return of migrant workers, will be important steps to increase the country's labor potential. Removing restrictions on women's employment, such as the ban on shift work for mothers of young children, will help increase women's participation in the economy and reduce the gender pay gap.
In addition, according to the survey, promoting private investment will play a key role in increasing productivity and export growth. Attracting investment requires simplifying regulation, stimulating competition and innovation, and improving access to finance. In addition, improving corporate governance, protecting shareholder rights and modernizing the bankruptcy system will increase investor confidence. Reducing the administrative burden on business will help expand the share of formalized business activities.
