Attacks by Ukrainian drones on the warehouse infrastructure of Russian marketplaces could lead to a decline in Russian e-commerce by 400 million orders and 400 billion rubles (approximately $4.73 billion - ed.). This loss was estimated by the analytics firm Data Insight. Due to the consequences of the attacks, the company has revised its market growth forecast. According to its founder, Fyodor Virin, Russians will place about 9.6 billion online orders in 2026, instead of the previously expected 10 billion. According to the new forecast, sales volume will total 15 trillion rubles ($177.50 billion), rather than 15.4 trillion rubles ($182.23 billion). This was reported by Dengi.ua, citingThe Moscow Times.
According to Virin, the decline in performance is specifically linked to strikes on marketplace warehouses. Wildberries accounts for the bulk of the losses. As the analyst noted, “The attacks on warehouses led to a drop in sales at WB due to a lack of inventory (unavailable in a specific city or anywhere at all) and longer delivery times (requiring longer transport routes).” At the same time, all projected losses relate to the second half of the year: attacks on Wildberries facilities began on July 18, and on Ozon warehouses on August 25.
According to Virin’s estimate, buyers “canceled altogether” about 30% of the orders that were delayed or the items that were no longer available for sale. The remaining unmet demand from Wildberries shifted primarily to other online platforms and, to a lesser extent, to brick-and-mortar stores. In brick-and-mortar retail, shoppers primarily purchased clothing, shoes, and books, followed by home goods. Virin attributes this to a resurgence in shopping center foot traffic observed over the summer, following a prolonged decline in activity.
An additional factor for Wildberries was the problems sellers faced in receiving payments. Starting in mid-August, sellers began reporting payment delays. In late August and early September, many of them had not received the funds they had requested as early as August 17. Wildberries attributed the situation to a DDoS attack. After reports of the delays appeared in the media, the marketplace paid the outstanding amounts to the sellers.
According to Wildberries’ rules, sellers can withdraw their earnings once a week, and the funds must be credited to their account within a maximum of seven days. However, reports of delays continue to appear in sellers’ chat groups. In particular, some sellers claim they have not received payment for goods that were “removed” from the platform on August 31. “On Monday, the fourth payment will be scheduled,” complains one of the sellers.
Thus, the business owner has been waiting for payment for three weeks and does not know when he will receive the next one. At the same time, his goods were not stored in the warehouses that were attacked, so he managed to save his entire inventory. However, he cannot count on government support in the form of a tax payment deferral. “I’ll have to pay taxes in early October, though it’s unclear how I’m supposed to do that. Support hasn’t responded to my requests,” the entrepreneur worries.
Due to the situation, the seller intends to “clear out his inventory” on Wildberries and temporarily focus on other online platforms until the payment issue is resolved. Two other sellers have also reported their intention to do the same.
Sergii Semko of Data Insight preliminarily estimated the losses incurred by RWB - Wildberries’ management company - due to damage to warehouses and infrastructure at 147–280 billion rubles ($1.74–3.31 billion). According to his calculations, the total losses for sellers could amount to 445–507 billion rubles ($5.27–6.00 billion).
The attacks affected all of Wildberries’ major logistics complexes. The impact on Ozon was significantly less severe: Data Insight estimates the total losses for the marketplace itself and its sellers at approximately 100 billion rubles ($1.18 billion). Analysts at Alfa Bank attributed this to Ozon’s more extensive warehouse network and the fact that the company leases a significant portion of its large warehouse complexes.
