The NBU’s Business Activity Expectations Index fell to 48.3 - logistics disruptions, high fuel prices, and labor shortages are weighing on businesses, with only the construction sector remaining optimistic.
This is reported by Dengi.ua, , and citing data from the National Bank of Ukraine.
How Businesses Assessed Their Own Performance in August
In August, businesses gave a cautious assessment of their economic performance. Significant losses resulting from large-scale destruction of production facilities, warehouses, and logistics infrastructure, the blockade of seaports, high fuel prices, and a shortage of skilled workers limited business activity.
At the same time, positive factors included steady consumer demand, international financial support, budgetary funding for infrastructure restoration, a stable situation in the energy sector, and seasonal factors. This is evidenced by the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates monthly. In August 2026, the BAEI stood at 48.3, compared to 50.1 in July.
Why the Construction Sector Remains the Most Optimistic
Construction companies were the only sector among those surveyed to maintain optimistic assessments, thanks to stable budget funding for road and infrastructure restoration, sustained domestic demand, and seasonal factors: the sectoral index stood at 50.7 in August.
Construction firms are poised to increase construction volumes, new orders, and raw material purchases. Respondents expect growth in the volume of contractor services purchased, albeit at a slower pace.
Why the Manufacturing Sector Provided the Most Subdued Assessments
Manufacturing firms provided the most subdued assessments (the sectoral index stood at 47.3 in August) due to significant losses resulting from the destruction of production capacity, logistical challenges, and a shortage of skilled workers.
Unlike the previous month, manufacturers expect a decline in production volumes and new orders (including export orders). At the same time, an increase in raw material and supply inventories is expected.
How Disruptions to Logistics Affected Trade
Retail companies gave a cautious assessment of their current economic performance due to the loss of warehouse space and logistics facilities, as well as high fuel prices: the sectoral index stood at 47.5 in August.
Retail companies expect a decline in sales volume and purchases of goods for resale, as well as a further reduction in inventory levels. Respondents anticipate a further decline in profit margins.
Why the service sector feels more confident than other sectors
Service sector companies were less cautious in their assessment of their operations thanks to stable domestic demand (the sectoral index stood at 49.5), despite rising costs due to infrastructure damage and labor shortages. Respondents maintained positive assessments of new orders and resumed optimistic expectations regarding the volume of services provided.
How Prices and the Labor Market Will Change
Respondents in most sectors expect the growth rate of input prices for raw materials, prices for their own products, and the cost of goods for sale to accelerate. Only construction firms anticipate a slight slowdown in the growth rate of input prices.
The labor market situation remains challenging. Only construction companies have a positive outlook on total employment, while firms in other sectors expect staff reductions, most notably in manufacturing.
