The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised downward its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth for 2026. According to data from the June "Regional Economic Prospects" report, the expected growth rate has been reduced from 2.5% to 2.2%. RBC-Ukraine reports on this, citing the bank's analysis, according to Dengi.ua.
At the same time, the forecast for 2027 remains unchanged. The EBRD believes that in the event of a swift cessation of hostilities and the launch of large-scale post-war recovery efforts, the Ukrainian economy will be capable of growing by 4.0%.
The report emphasizes that the country has so far managed to maintain macroeconomic stability, largely due to financial and other support from international partners.
The EBRD identifies the energy crisis associated with the conflict in the Middle East as one of the key risk factors for the economy. According to the bank's estimates, its consequences could further complicate the already tense situation in Ukraine's energy sector.
Experts attribute the economic growth slowdown to 1.8% in 2025, as well as the weak performance in early 2026, to labor shortages and ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure, which have negatively affected business operations and logistical chains.
In addition, after slowing to 7.4% in January 2026, inflation has started to accelerate again. The EBRD attributes this trend to the spillover effects of the war in the Middle East, despite the previously achieved results of tight monetary policy and the relative stability of the exchange rate.
