According to a prediction by American billionaire Elon Musk, in five years, artificial intelligence (AI) will surpass the combined total of all human intelligence, and between 100 million and 1 billion humanoid robots will appear, which will double the global economy. This was reported by Dengi.ua, citing a blog post by Roman Komyza, an economist and chairman of the board of the Center for Economic Integration and Sustainable Development.
The expert shared his perspective on the feasibility of Musk’s prediction. Specifically, he noted that according to generally accepted optimistic models, AI is not expected to achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) - surpassing all of humanity combined - until at least the 2030s or 2040s.
He also expressed skepticism regarding the deployment of 100 million to 1 billion humanoid robots within a five-year timeframe. This is due to the fact that the supply chains required to manufacture hundreds of millions of robots, such as the Tesla Optimus, demand massive quantities of semiconductors, batteries, and rare-earth metals - all of which face structural shortages - meaning their scale-up would take several decades.
At the same time, according to the economist, doubling the global economy within 5 to 7 years is a perfectly achievable goal, given that historically, global GDP has doubled approximately every 15 to 20 years.
“We are currently witnessing the growth of sectors in the new and hyper-new economy (based on AI), which is having an accelerating effect on all other sectors and, as a result, on GDP growth. But we are also witnessing a colossal systemic shift in the global architecture of monetary and financial relations, consisting of a devaluation of the dollar while the dollar remains the primary reserve currency and the main measure of value for everything,” Roman Komyza noted.
