The Ukrainian economy continues to recover, but the pace is slowing down. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Ukraine's GDP will grow by 2.9% in 2024. However, in the second half of the year and early 2025 growth slowed down due to acute labor shortages and regular attacks on energy infrastructure.
This is said on the Facebook page "Tsina Powers", write Dengi.ua .
For 2025-2026, the OECD expects GDP growth of only 2% annually if the security situation does not improve. At the same time, rapid improvement of the situation on the front can significantly accelerate economic recovery and the launch of large-scale reconstruction.
It is noted that the economy is now supported by international financial assistance, including $50 billion under the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration program, high defense spending, and stable domestic consumption.
In the first quarter of 2025, business sentiment has improved due to rising real wages, increased construction and stable energy supply. However, the main challenge is labor shortage. Labor shortages remain critical and are hampering growth.
Inflation as of April 2025:
- overall CPI - 15.1%;
- core inflation - 12.1%.
Budget deficit in 2025 is expected to be 20% of GDP. NBU raised discount rate from 13% to 15.5% (Dec 2024-March 2025) in response to inflationary pressures.
Exports of agricultural and metal products fall in late 2024 but stabilize in 2025. Trade deficit rises due to increased imports. The direct impact of new US duties (25% on steel and aluminum and 10% on other goods) is still limited, but the indirect impact could be felt due to lower demand in other markets.
"The security situation remains the main variable. Without security guarantees and stable external financing, risks to the economy remain high," the report said.
